GRE寫(xiě)作Argument 范文——推斷題

題目：
The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell:
　　"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
范文及解析：　　
        In this memo, Hopewell's mayor recommends the construction of a gold course in order to stimulate the town's economy and boost tax revenues. To support this recommendation the mayor points out that in Ocean View during the last two years tourism has increased, new businesses have opened, and tax revenues have increased by 30%. The mayor’s reasoning, while sound, has led him to make a rather unconvincing argument.
　　【此段結(jié)構(gòu)】
　　本段采用了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的Argument開(kāi)頭段結(jié)構(gòu)，即：C – E - F的開(kāi)頭結(jié)構(gòu)，首句概括原文的C(Conclusion)。接下來(lái)的一句話概括了原文為了支持他的結(jié)論所引用的E(Evidence)。最后尾句中給出開(kāi)頭段到正文段的過(guò)渡句，指出原文在邏輯上存在F(Flaw)。
　　【此段功能】
　　本段作為Argument開(kāi)頭段，具體功能就在發(fā)起攻擊。首先，概括原文的結(jié)論： Hopewell(簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)H)市市長(zhǎng)推薦通過(guò)建設(shè)golf course來(lái)促進(jìn)當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)和稅收。接下來(lái)分別列舉了原文為了支持這個(gè)結(jié)論引用的證據(jù)：Ocean View(簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)OV)在過(guò)去兩年游客數(shù)增加，新企業(yè)產(chǎn)生，稅收上漲30%。論據(jù)的歸納用于鋪墊出正文段的具體攻擊。最后點(diǎn)出原文存在邏輯錯(cuò)誤，引出后面的分析。
　　First of all, it is possible that the mayor has confused cause with effect in respect to the recent economic developments in Ocean View. Perhaps Ocean View's construction of a new golf course and hotel was a response to increases in tourism and business development. Since the mayor has failed to account for this possibility, the claim that Hopewell would boost its economy by also constructing a golf course and hotel is completely unwarranted.
　　【此段結(jié)構(gòu)】
　　本段采用了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的Argument正文段結(jié)構(gòu)，即：概括第一個(gè)邏輯錯(cuò)誤的錯(cuò)誤類(lèi)型和原文犯錯(cuò)位置，接下來(lái)給出合理的理由和他因來(lái)反駁原文。
　　【此段功能】
　　本段作為正文第一段，攻擊文章犯的主要邏輯錯(cuò)誤：錯(cuò)誤因果。作者認(rèn)為原文中關(guān)于OV經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的原因的說(shuō)法是本末倒置的。為此，作者提出了其他可能性反駁原文：可能由于OV游客數(shù)量增加以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)造成的golf course和hotel的增加。如果不能忽略這種可能性，那么原文關(guān)于建設(shè)golf course和hotel來(lái)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的建議是不合理的。
　　Secondly, the mayor fails to account for other possible causes of the trends in Ocean View during the last two years. The increase in tourism might have been due to improving economic conditions nationwide, or to unusually pleasant weather in the region. The new businesses that have opened in Ocean View might have opened there irrespective of the new golf course and hotel. And, the 30% increase in tax revenues might have been the result of other tax increases. Without ruling out these and other alternative explanations for the three recent trends in Ocean View, the mayor cannot reasonably infer, based on those trends, that Hopewell's economy would benefit by following Ocean View's example.
　　【此段結(jié)構(gòu)】
　　本段采用了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的Argument正文段結(jié)構(gòu)，即：概括第二個(gè)邏輯錯(cuò)誤的錯(cuò)誤類(lèi)型和原文犯錯(cuò)位置，接下來(lái)給出合理的理由和他因來(lái)反駁原文。
　　【此段功能】
　　本段作為正文第二段，攻擊文章犯的主要邏輯錯(cuò)誤：因果錯(cuò)誤(忽略他因)。作者認(rèn)為原文忽略了其他可能造成OV發(fā)展的原因。進(jìn)一步，作者提出其他可能性：旅游業(yè)的增加可能由于全國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的改善，或者當(dāng)?shù)氐膒leasant weather，而new business也許與golf course和hotel無(wú)關(guān)，30%的稅收上漲可能由于其他原因。
　　Thirdly, for the sake of argument, lets assume that recent trends in Ocean View are attributable to the construction of the new golf course and hotel there. Even still, the mayor assumes too hastily that the golf course and hotel will continue to benefit that town's overall economy. The mayor has not accounted for the possibility that increased tourism will begin to drive residents away during tourist season, or that new business development will result in the town's losing its appeal as a place to visit or to live. That is, two years is quite a short time to be using as a sample. Unless the mayor can convince that these scenarios are unlikely one should not so readily accept the recommendation.
　　【此段結(jié)構(gòu)】
　　本段采用了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的Argument正文段結(jié)構(gòu)，即：概括第三個(gè)邏輯錯(cuò)誤的錯(cuò)誤類(lèi)型和原文犯錯(cuò)位置，接下來(lái)給出合理的理由和他因來(lái)反駁原文。
　　【此段功能】
　　本段作為正文第三段，攻擊文章犯的主要邏輯錯(cuò)誤：時(shí)間類(lèi)錯(cuò)誤。作者即使golf course和hotel可以促進(jìn)OV經(jīng)濟(jì)，但這種趨勢(shì)未必會(huì)continue。接下來(lái)。作者提出了后來(lái)可能發(fā)生的一系列事情來(lái)反駁原文中的論斷�？赡躷ourism會(huì)使resident在旅游季離開(kāi)，或者new business會(huì)使旅游業(yè)失去吸引力。最后，作者提出，兩年的時(shí)間作為論據(jù)還是太短了。
　　Finally, the mayor's argument rests on the unsubstantiated assumption that Hopewell and Ocean View are sufficiently alike such to the extent that by following the same plan, the same results will come to fruition. Hopewell might lack the sort of natural environment that would attract more tourists and new businesses to the town regardless of its new golf course and hotel. For that matter, perhaps Hopewell already contains several resort hotels and golf courses that are not utilized to their capacity. If so, building yet another golf course and hotel might amount to a misallocation of the town's resources, which would actually harm the town's overall economy.
　　【此段結(jié)構(gòu)】
　　本段采用了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的Argument正文段結(jié)構(gòu)，即：概括第四個(gè)邏輯錯(cuò)誤的錯(cuò)誤類(lèi)型和原文犯錯(cuò)位置，接下來(lái)給出合理的理由和他因來(lái)反駁原文。
　　【此段功能】
　　本段作為正文第四段，攻擊文章犯的主要邏輯錯(cuò)誤：錯(cuò)誤類(lèi)比。作者認(rèn)為，H地采取相同的措施未必會(huì)得到與OV一樣的效果。進(jìn)一步，作者給出其他可能性：可能H缺少吸引游客和tourism的natural environment，導(dǎo)致它的hotel和golf course對(duì)游客沒(méi)有吸引力，無(wú)法促進(jìn)H地經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。
　　In sum, the mayor's recommendation is not well supported. To bolster argument the mayor must provide better evidence that Ocean View's new golf course and hotel, and not some other phenomenon, has been responsible for boosting Ocean View's economy during the last two years. Also, to better assess the recommendation, an audience would need to know why Ocean View decided to construct its new golf course and hotel in the first place (specifically what events prior to construction might have prompted that decision). One would also need to thoroughly compare Hopewell with Ocean View to determine whether the same course of action would also boost Hopewell's economy.
　　【此段結(jié)構(gòu)】
　　本段采用了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的Argument結(jié)尾段結(jié)構(gòu)，即：C – S的結(jié)尾結(jié)構(gòu)，首先再次重申原文的站不住腳的Conclusion，接下來(lái)給出給合理建議Suggestion。
　　【此段功能】
　　本段作為Argument結(jié)尾段，具體功能就總結(jié)歸納+建議措施，首先再次重申市長(zhǎng)的建議不合理。接下來(lái)作者給出合理的建議：一是需要說(shuō)明OV的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮是由golf course和hotel而不是其他因素促進(jìn)的，二是要說(shuō)明為什么OV要把建設(shè)golf course和hotel作為首要任務(wù)，三是要通過(guò)對(duì)OV和H地的徹底對(duì)比來(lái)分析H地采用相同的策略能否促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)。結(jié)尾段的幾條建議非常規(guī)整的隱射前面的幾個(gè)主要錯(cuò)誤，前后呼應(yīng)，文章有力結(jié)尾，渾然一體。
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