雙語(yǔ)新聞：機(jī)器人將取代八類職業(yè)人

Soon you could be competing with a robot for a job.

人們可能很快會(huì)跟機(jī)器人搶飯碗了。

Economists are sharply divided over the exact timing of the threat from robots and other forms of futuristic technology. Some see an imminent threat, others believe it won't happen until later this century -- if at all.

機(jī)器人和其他形式的未來(lái)技術(shù)可能對(duì)人類產(chǎn)生威脅，而對(duì)于這個(gè)威脅來(lái)臨的確切時(shí)間，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)們家站成兩派，各執(zhí)一詞。一派認(rèn)為威脅迫在眉睫，另一派認(rèn)為如果威脅真的存在，那最早也將在本世紀(jì)晚些時(shí)候發(fā)生。

Yet Amy Webb, a digital media futurist and founder of Webbmedia Group, predicts at least eight career fields are "ripe for disruption" very soon -- like in the next 10 to 20 years.

然而，網(wǎng)絡(luò)媒體集團(tuán)創(chuàng)始人、數(shù)字媒體未來(lái)主義者艾米·韋伯預(yù)測(cè)，在約10到20年后，至少八種職業(yè)將很快“面臨洗牌”。

"You should be quite worried," Webb said at the Milken Global Conference in Los Angeles last month. She points to these eight careers, in particular:

“你們應(yīng)該有危機(jī)感。”韋伯上個(gè)月在洛杉磯米爾肯會(huì)議上說(shuō)。她指出了將要受到機(jī)器人威脅的八種職業(yè)：

1) Toll booth operators and cashiers: People who work in the transactional space shouldn't be big fans of the Apple Watch or Apple Pay.

1）收費(fèi)站工作人員和收銀員：在交易領(lǐng)域工作的人們可不該迷戀蘋果手表和蘋果支付。

That's because the rise of wearable technology and mobile payment systems may make jobs like toll booth operator and grocery store cashier virtually obsolete.

因?yàn)榭纱┐骷夹g(shù)和移動(dòng)支付系統(tǒng)的普及可能會(huì)使收費(fèi)站工作人員和雜貨店收銀員再無(wú)用武之地。

"There is no real need for a person to be there every step of the way," Webb said.

“沒(méi)必要有人時(shí)時(shí)刻刻守在那里收費(fèi)了。”韋伯說(shuō)。

2) Marketers: Powerful advertising tools of the future may allow brands to fashion their messages to customers with precision accuracy.

2）營(yíng)銷人員：未來(lái)的廣告工具會(huì)將品牌信息精準(zhǔn)地傳遞給消費(fèi)者。

Webb pointed to new experiments with technologies that study customer behavior to identify what kind of ads will be most effective.

韋伯指出，新的技術(shù)實(shí)驗(yàn)通過(guò)研究消費(fèi)者行為，能夠確定哪種廣告是最為有效的。

"This is pretty much unlike anything we've seen before," she said.

她說(shuō)：“這是我們之前見所未見，聞所未聞的。”

If these tools work, they may translate to smaller creative and strategic teams at marketing and ad firms.

如果這些工具確實(shí)有效，它們將變身為未來(lái)市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷和廣告公司的小型創(chuàng)造性和戰(zhàn)略性團(tuán)隊(duì)。

3) Customer service: Many customer service jobs have been shipped overseas to India and other lower-paying countries. New technologies like predictive analytics could kill off more of these jobs.

3）客戶服務(wù)：很多公司都將客戶服務(wù)工作設(shè)在印度和其他勞動(dòng)力成本較低的國(guó)家。預(yù)測(cè)分析等新技術(shù)將會(huì)使這些工作的工人需求量大大減小。

Look no further than Watson, the friendly IBM supercomputer that won millions of fans by defeating former Jeopardy champions.

在美國(guó)著名智力競(jìng)賽節(jié)目《危險(xiǎn)邊緣》（Jeopardy）中，IBM公司的超級(jí)計(jì)算機(jī)沃森（Watson）擊敗了之前的冠軍選手，贏得了相當(dāng)?shù)娜藲�。這就是眼前的例子。

Webb warns that one of the things Watson can do, though it's not positioned that way right now, is to replace everybody in the customer service department of a company.

韋伯警告稱，沃森能夠取代公司客戶服務(wù)部的任何一名員工，雖然現(xiàn)在我們并沒(méi)有利用其這一功能。

4) Factory workers: Get ready for robots to steal more manufacturing jobs from humans -- at a cheaper price and without taking breaks to text their friends.

4）工廠工人：做好準(zhǔn)備，機(jī)器人們馬上就要來(lái)?yè)尮と藗兊娘埻肓�。機(jī)器人們?cè)诠べY上與人類相比有優(yōu)勢(shì)，其次，這些機(jī)器人不會(huì)在工作期間休息，用手機(jī)和朋友閑聊。

The next wave of disruption is likely to be led by haptics, a sensor-based technology that allows people to virtually feel what they are working on even when the actual task is taking place far away.

下一次大洗牌則可能是由觸覺學(xué)引發(fā)的，觸覺學(xué)是一個(gè)以傳感器為基礎(chǔ)的技術(shù)，利用此技術(shù)，即便真正的工作在千里之外，人們也可以真實(shí)感覺到他們的工作。

5) Financial middle men: Don't knock Bitcoin -- Its underlying technology may steal your job.

5）金融中介：別再詬病比特幣了，比特幣背后的技術(shù)或許就會(huì)成為導(dǎo)致你失業(yè)的罪魁禍?zhǔn)住?/p>

Blockchain, Bitcoin's computer program, is able to automatically process transactions and create a perfect, reliable digital record.

比特幣的計(jì)算機(jī)程序“區(qū)塊鏈”（blockchain）能自動(dòng)處理交易，并創(chuàng)建出一份完美可靠的數(shù)字記錄。

Webb believes blockchain will disrupt the middle men in the banking, escrow, insurance and mortgage sectors.

韋伯認(rèn)為“區(qū)塊鏈”技術(shù)可以取代銀行業(yè)，委托付款，保險(xiǎn)和抵押領(lǐng)域的中介。

"Whether or not Bitcoin ever takes off is beside the point. It's the underlying infrastructure that will dramatically change the work that's being done," Webb said.

韋伯說(shuō)：“比特幣今后是否有著光明的前景，這并不是我們討論的重點(diǎn)。其背后的技術(shù)足以使我們現(xiàn)在的工作發(fā)生天翻地覆的變化。”

We may have received a sneak preview of that this week when Nasdaq said it will use blockchain to keep transaction records in its pre-IPO market.

當(dāng)納斯達(dá)克表示將要將“區(qū)塊鏈”技術(shù)應(yīng)用于其首次公開籌股前市場(chǎng)交易記錄時(shí)，我們就可見一斑了。

6) Journalists: The Internet wiped out countless newspapers, and new technology could kill even more journalism positions.

6）記者：網(wǎng)絡(luò)的出現(xiàn)已經(jīng)使不少紙媒受到?jīng)_擊，而新技術(shù)將可能使更多記者失業(yè)。

Webb, a former journalist at Newsweek and The Wall Street Journal, said the next culprit will be algorithms that allow news outlets to automatically create stories and place them on websites without human interaction. Robot journalists (fedora optional) are already writing thousands of articles a quarter at The Associated Press.

韋伯過(guò)去也是名記者，她曾供職于美國(guó)《新聞周刊》和《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》。她說(shuō)，未來(lái)新聞媒體可利用算法自動(dòng)撰寫新聞，并可在無(wú)人工干預(yù)的情況下發(fā)布到網(wǎng)絡(luò)上。美聯(lián)社的機(jī)器人記者已經(jīng)在一個(gè)季度內(nèi)撰寫了數(shù)千篇稿件了。

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7) Lawyers: If you're going into the legal world, veer toward litigation.

7）律師：如果你還有志從事法律工作，那就去做訴訟吧。

Webb believes non-litigation lawyers could soon be replaced by online form-based services like LegalZoom that can carry out simple tasks like trademark applications, wills and even divorce.

韋伯相信，LegalZoom等基于表單的服務(wù)將會(huì)替代非訴訟律師完成簡(jiǎn)單的任務(wù)，諸如商標(biāo)申請(qǐng)，遺囑，甚至離婚。

It's all been made easier by the trend to make records more open and easily accessible, lessening the need for high-priced lawyers.

目前的趨勢(shì)是備案更公開，更易于獲取，因此簡(jiǎn)化了程序，人們對(duì)花費(fèi)高昂的律師的需求也減少了。

8) Phone workers: Many millennials don't have landline phones. That trend is only likely to continue with the advances of digital communication.

8）電話工人：千禧一代（指1985-1995年出生的人）中的很多人都沒(méi)有固定電話。隨著數(shù)字通訊的發(fā)展，這種趨勢(shì)只有繼續(xù)下去的可能。

That means telecom companies like AT&Tand Verizon could eliminate billing, operator and other positions on the telephone side of the business.

這就意味著像美國(guó)電話電報(bào)公司和威瑞森這樣的電話公司可能會(huì)淘汰開賬單的員工、接線員和電話業(yè)務(wù)等其他職位。

"There are a bunch of jobs that don't really need to exit," Webb said.

韋伯說(shuō)：“有很多工作崗位都沒(méi)有存在的必要了。”

Fearing the future? These predictions will make people who work in these fields understandably cringe. But Webb isn't pessimistic about what lies ahead.

對(duì)未來(lái)感到擔(dān)憂嗎？以上的這些預(yù)測(cè)會(huì)理所當(dāng)然地使在這些領(lǐng)域工作的人感到擔(dān)心。但韋伯并不對(duì)前景感到擔(dān)心。

"I don't see our technological future as a dystopian one. I just see it as different. For many people different is dystopian, which is something you need to get over," she said.

她說(shuō)：“我并不認(rèn)為技術(shù)的未來(lái)是反烏托邦的，我只覺得它將會(huì)有所改變。而對(duì)一些人來(lái)說(shuō)，這些改變就是反烏托邦的，是我們需要克服的。”

One outcome may be that tomorrow's employers will value very different skillsets than today's.

結(jié)果之一就是，與今日相比，未來(lái)的雇主們將會(huì)看重不同的技能。

"We need highly-skilled plumbers and highly-skilled people in all types of fields we no longer venerate," Webb said.

韋伯說(shuō)：“我們需要高水平的水管工，在其他我們不再崇拜的行業(yè)里，我們也需要高水平的員工。”

Vocabulary:

imminent: 臨近的

disruption: 瓦解

obsolete: 過(guò)時(shí)的，淘汰的

underlying: 潛在的

cringe: 尷尬

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