8月16日托福綜合寫作終極預(yù)測及范文解析

1.（命中指數(shù)：5星）閱讀：某個地方的洞穴Erdstall可能有三種用途

(1)儲存牲口或糧食

(2)當(dāng)shelter，躲避強(qiáng)盜attack

(3)宗教用途。靈魂等候區(qū)（為死去的人提供場所，讓他們等待超生）

聽力里駁斥：

(1)洞會漏雨水，儲存食物不方便。在冬天Erdstall都被淹沒了，而且也沒發(fā)現(xiàn)里面有谷類殘留

(2)Erdstall太小了，只能勉強(qiáng)裝下一家人。而且存氧氣很少，只夠一個人的量。另外，只有一個入口，不太可能

像為了逃跑設(shè)計的。

(3)宗教用途. 如果是的話，應(yīng)該所有有共同宗教信仰的村子都有，但是有的村子有，有的村子沒有。

The reading passage proposes three hypotheses regarding the functions of the Erdstall, a narrow, underground structure built in [ name of place mentioned in the reading ]. However, the lecture points to the weakness of the three hypotheses.

First, the Erdstall could have been used to keep livestock or to store food. However, the lecturer argues that the Erdstall is not rainwater-proof. Particularly in the winter, the Erdstall could have been flooded. So it is not an ideal place to store food. Furthermore, no traces of grain have been found in the Erdstall. Therefore, the storage hypothesis is unlikely.

Second, the Erdstall could be a shelter against attack or burglary. This is also not possible in the lecturer’s opinion, because, as he argues, the Erdstall is so small that it could barely accommodate one family, and the oxygen inside the Erdstall is sufficient to sustain only one person. Another obvious weakness of this hypothesis is that the Erdstall has only one entry point and does not have an exit, making it unlikely to serve as an escape route.

Finally, it is theorized that the Erdstall could have religious functions, serving as a chamber of soul for the deceased. Yet if this were true, according to the lecture, the Erdstall should have been found in every village across the whole region which shares the same religion. The fact, however, is that the Erdstall is only present in some, not all, of the villages. So the religion hypothesis is unconvincing, either.

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2. （命中指數(shù)：5星）

閱讀： lionfish 從Indo 洋擴(kuò)展到太平洋了，閱讀中有三種方法來解決：

（1）人工捕捉它們來protect coral reef 生物系統(tǒng)

（2）把他們引入fish market，這樣可以減少對 local fish 的需要，讓他們能有時間 recover

（3）人們可以把它們用于日常飲食，因為它們高蛋白，低脂肪

聽力：教授全部反對

（1）人工捕捉無法區(qū)分lionfish 和其他魚，很多 rare 的魚也都在coral reef ，會牽連其他魚種

（2）引進(jìn)市場會導(dǎo)致有人人工養(yǎng)殖。 Lionfish 如果從 fish farm escape ，這就造成了更嚴(yán)重的 invasive 問題

（3）有些lionfish 是有毒的，吃了以后會造成 vomiting numbness arching，我們無法檢驗每一條魚，所以吃他們unsafe。

真題還原：

Reading:

[1]. Lionfish are known for eating anything they can fit in their mouths, and seem to eat nearly constantly. During a study of invasive lionfish in the Bahamas, one lionfish was observed to eat twenty small fish in the space of thirty minutes and reduce the juvenile fish populations greatly. Fast-growing and capable of reproducing year-round, lionfish are also out-competing native species and spreading more quickly than anyone predicted.

With their indiscriminant eating habits, lionfish eat out other species in a rapid speed, which prevent algal overgrowth on reefs and therefore a healthier reef environment. The Caribbean lionfish invasion could become the most disastrous marine invasion in history by drastically decreasing the abundance of coral reef fishes throughout the entire region. Thus, they should be caught for the reason of protecting the coral reef.

[2]. On the same line, since lionfish directly impact populations of numerous fish and crustacean species, including commercially valuable species like snappers, groupers, lobsters and so on. By catching lionfish, the reduced number of them will allow other fishes, especially the fish for the local market purpose to recover and bounce back in numbers.

[3]. Lionfish make for delicious, delicate, economical fillets that offer a perfect pop of protein and low fat meat. There are no catch limits, and they can be prepared dozens of ways. Once stripped of its venomous spines, cleaned and filleted like any other fish , the lionfish becomes delectable seafood fare. This is a great source of nutrients for the local people.

Listening:

[1]. When human capturing the lionfish, they ‘also catch other fishes at the same time. Where lionfish appears, there are many other fishes around. Besides, there are many rare fish, such as species like parrotfish, which can prevent algal overgrowth on reefs and or lobsters that catch starfish for the wholesomeness of the reef environment. Thus, this methods will not allow people to distinguish which fish is which fish and will eventually hurt everything in that area.

[2]. In the second place, if lionfish is introduced to the fish market, the "benefits" of selling such fish will turn into the private fishing farm problem. In other words, fish-selling people will artificially propagate or artificially cultivate lionfish. As we all know that farmed fish may escape the pen's netting and this will cause more serious invasive problem to the local ecosystem.

[3]. Thirdly, after tests of nearly 200 lionfish show that more than a quarter exceed federal levels for a toxin that cannot only cause - diarrhea, vomiting and fatigue - but also neurological problems such as painfully tingling hands and feet, a feeling of having loose teeth, and, oddest of all, a reversed sense of temperature. Besides, we cannot examine all the fish one by one, so this is not a sound and safe idea.

關(guān)鍵詞：預(yù)測 匯總 托福綜合寫作 范文 8月16日 機(jī)經(jīng)

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3.(命中指數(shù)：5星)在 Rhone river 發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個bust

閱讀：passage 里面認(rèn)為是羅馬的一個leader－西澤大帝，原因有三。

（1）雕塑風(fēng)格（realism）是西澤時期引入的；

（2）雕塑特點和羅馬鑄幣上西澤相似（the style of hair）；

（3）發(fā)現(xiàn)雕塑的地點在一條河，以前人們想銷毀它，因為有新的leader 上任，留著它是不respect。

聽力：lecture 完全反駁這個觀點，原因有三。

（1）寫實主義是在西澤之后才引入的，所以不可能是西澤；

（2）雕塑的特點也不完全一致，西澤有Slim nose and long leg，和雕塑不符合；

（3）最后一原因羅馬人把沒有用的雕塑都往河里扔，舉了一個叫Neptune 的雕塑，是古羅馬的一個神。

The lecture and the reading passage both talk about a life-size marble bust, found during an archaeological excavation and retrieved from the bed of the river Rhone. While the author of the passage attributes this bust to Julius Caesar, the lecturer refutes each of the arguments presented in the reading.

First, the style of the portrait could not be used as evidence to show that this bust was that of Julius Caesar. Although the bust was made in a style very popular during Caesar’s time, this style continued to be popular many years after Caesar died. Therefore, this bust could very well have been made in a much later time for someone other than Caesar.

Second, the similarities between the bust and the portrait of Caesar on silver coins were rather limited to the hair only. In other features such as the neck and the nose, there are many obvious differences. If the bust was Caesar’s, then it should have looked the same in all features to other portraits of Caesar.

Finally, the location where the bust was found could not prove anything. Archaeological study also excavated other items from the same place including a sculpture for the God of Neptune. This indicates that people could have thrown things into the river because they have become useless rather than because of political reasons, as what the reading suggests.

4.（命中指數(shù)：5星）

閱讀: To Build Crossings for wildlife 的缺點

(1)動物不會用這些為他們建的 crossings; they are not trained to make use of it

(2)弄這些crossings 很浪費錢啊: Financial waste

(3)而且the areas affected by road or by other human development that have already been damaged too much. Not a

long term strategy. 因棲息地都壞掉，不要(無法)建crossings,這樣可以保護(hù)動物待在同一個區(qū)，雖然這樣也許會讓 population 下降。

聽力:反對閱讀

(1)說雖然動物現(xiàn)在不會用這些 crossings，但是他們是可以學(xué)習(xí)的嘛，比如十年后，他們就會用了。

(2)教授說不浪費錢啊，動物和人之間的 collisions 不僅對動物，對人類也造成了很大傷害，很多人都受傷了還是怎么的，說考慮到這些因素，建 crossings 能保護(hù)人類啊。

(3)教授說動物們待在一個保護(hù)區(qū)里不能去別的地方，數(shù)量當(dāng)然下降了， crossings 可以連結(jié) fragmental 的棲息地，然后動物就可以自由自在的穿梭，繁衍生息

Casting doubts on the issue whether or not wildlife crossings should be made for the greatest benefits of human beings and wildlife creatures, the speaker holds a perspective contrary to the reading passage.

The first point is about whether the animals can use the crossings and it means that if animals do not know how to make use of the crossings, it is not advantageous to the building plan; however, from the listening passage, it says that animals can be trained to use the man-made crossings. For example, the bear and wolves cases in the listening that they can make use of the crossings after certain time, such as a decade co-existing with the crossings. The reading passage nevertheless holds that those wildlife animals cannot use the crossings and the building plan will be invalid.

Secondly, according to the speaker, it is not a financial waste for building wildlife crossings. If there are no crossings built, the damage can be made not just to animals, but to vehicles and to humans. Building wildlife crossings is conducive to mutual benefits; thus it is not wasting money. This likewise refutes the author from the passage in that building wildlife crossings is a total waste of money; it will not help humans to save money on the accidents.

Thirdly, the speaker thinks that building wildlife crossings can actually help animal solve the fragmentation problem by creating links and bridges that overcome the main barriers such roads and other human development so that animal can have full access to all their territories. This can provide them more opportunities to survive, thrive and grow as they have more chances to find food and reproduce. Yet, the reading indicates it is better to keep wildlife animals in reserved areas where they can better be protected. In short, the points put forth about the wildlife crossings in the reading and listening are contradictory.

關(guān)鍵詞：預(yù)測 匯總 托福綜合寫作 范文 8月16日 機(jī)經(jīng)

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5.（命中指數(shù)：5星）Transient lunar phenomena (TLP)

閱讀文章：

TLP（月球瞬變現(xiàn)象），就是觀察月光以判斷EVENTS但這個現(xiàn)象不靠譜。

(1)這個光有可能因為器械的隨機(jī)錯誤造成例如望遠(yuǎn)鏡。

(2)the moon get a lot of METEORS STRIKING as the earth.

(3)the stone on the moon absorbs energy from the sun reflection

聽力講座：

Lecture反駁：

(1)we can observe the TLP in 2 special places；

(2)這種現(xiàn)象雖然發(fā)生但只有1秒，而TLP can keep about 20 minutes every time。

(3)雖然石頭有可能反光，但那個月球本身的光照要亮好多吧，那個ROCK的光是很WEAK的。

Transient lunar phenomenon, or TLP, is the change in color and light on the surface of the Moon, a phenomenon that is often reported in astronomical observations of the moon, particularly of the Aristarchus plateau region on the Moon. The reading passage suggests three plausible hypotheses to explain the occurrence of TLP, each of which is refuted in the lecture.

First, the reading suggests that TLP might have been caused by random flaws in observational equipment such as the telescope. However, the professor argues that if TLP were indeed caused by flaws in measurement, then such phenomenon would have been observed everywhere on the Earth. But the fact is that TLP can only been observed from two special locations on the Earth.

The second hypothesis is meteor impact, which occurs on the Moon’s surface as frequently as it does on the Earth. This theory is also refuted by the professor, who argues that the impact of a meteor strike only lasts about 1 second, but TLP can be observed for as long as 20 minutes. Clearly, meteor strike could not have been the cause.

Finally, according to the reading, the stones on the moon may have absorbed and reflected light from the Sun. It is such reflection that may have caused TLP. Yet the lecturer is skeptical about this hypothesis. He(she) says that even though rocks can reflect light from the Sun, such reflection is much weaker compared with the light observed in a TLP event.

6. （命中指數(shù)：5星）hydroelectric dam的好處

Reading: hydroelectric power plants three advantages

(1). low cost

(2). low pollution

(3). the water paths protect wildlife

Lecture: disagree

(1). account of the research cost for selecting location and building cost, the cost of hydroelectric plants is not low

(2). hydroelectric plants produce the same amount of greenhouse gases as fossil fuel plant do

(3). water paths cannot protect all fishes, an example in England, a kind of fish cannot use the water path as salmon do.

Be suspicious of whether hydroelectric power is advantageous to us compared with other power, the speaker holds a perspective contrary to the reading passage.

The first point is about the cost and it means that prior to a dam can be built, many studies have to be researched and made sure if the rock around the potential dam can support the heavy and massive construction. The dams cannot be built just anywhere near a river source. In addition, the cost of building a dam is enormous. This is not cost cutting. However, the reading thinks dams are built right in the source and do not need extra fuel to transport the power, so it is more inexpensive.

Secondly, according to the speaker, even though the operation of such plant does not generate greenhouse gases, hydroelectric plants crate flooded areas that make large amounts of plant material to decompose and decay. This is "the source" of producing greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. For tropical areas where vegetation is densest, the damage to the environment is just the same compared to coal plants. This likewise refutes the author from the passage in that hydroelectric plants do not cause harmful gases to the surroundings.

The third point is regarding the wildlife. It is true that salmon can be saved in the research because they are strong and get upstream from the dam. This is not the case for other kinds of fish in England. The fish cannot move vertically up to bypass the dam. To be more concise, hydroelectric plants still cause negative ejects wildlife. Thus, all points from the reading passage are different from those stated in the listening content.

關(guān)鍵詞：預(yù)測 匯總 托福綜合寫作 范文 8月16日 機(jī)經(jīng)

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7.（命中指數(shù)：5星）美國的 Death Valley 里300kg 的大石頭會動（moving stones），有人試著解釋。

閱讀：

（1）第一種理論是風(fēng)吹動的，因為存在關(guān)于山谷里有大風(fēng)的紀(jì)錄，且天下雨的時候，muddy 很變得很平，適合讓風(fēng)吹動石頭。

（2）第二個理論是地下水晚上結(jié)冰，石頭就能動了。

（3）第三個理論是人類惡搞的，比如麥田圈就是。

聽力：

（1）沒有風(fēng)強(qiáng)到能吹到石頭，并且給了張照片，石頭陷在muddy 里，按writer 的理論，石頭不應(yīng)該陷下去的。

（2）這里沙漠，水根本不夠，并且沙漠里溫度太高，就算晚上能結(jié)冰，白天就化了，沒法搬動石頭。

（3）如果是人干的，那一定會留下痕跡，這種muddy 里，沒有人能做到不留痕跡。而現(xiàn)場既沒有人的痕跡，也沒有馬的痕跡。

The reading passage tries to explain why some stones in desert areas show signs of moving slowly across the surface. However, all the three theories proposed in the reading are refuted by the lecturer.

The first theory is that the stones are moved by the forces of winds. This is made possible by powerful windstorms in the valley and muddy and slippery surfaces on rainy days. However, the professor argues that winds strong enough to move a rock have never been recorded on Earth. Furthermore, there’s evidence showing that part of the stones is beneath the muddy surface, indicating that the stones are not sliding on the surface.

The second theory is that the rocks move because of the floating ice sheets that surround the rocks. However, this theory is also not possible because, as the speaker says, the desert area is extremely dry, so it lacks the amount of water to form large ice sheets. Even though ice could possibly form during the night when the temperature drops, during the day the ice would melt. Therefore, ice sheets could not have been the forces at play.

Finally, there is the possibility that human or animal intervention rather than natural forces made this happen. However, if this were true, the professor says, then there would have been traces left of humans or animals moving the rocks, and these traces would not have been easily removed in such muddy places. Yet the fact is that neither the traces of humans nor those of horses exist near the moving rocks. So the human intervention theory is highly unlikely.

8.（命中指數(shù)：5星）講 congestion pricing。說為了緩解交通擁堵，想要在city 中的某個區(qū)域收費，這樣就能緩解一下。

閱讀文章支持，三個理由：

（1）這樣做可以improve time (主要就是說節(jié)省時間)

（2）可以改善環(huán)境improve that area's environment

（3）收的fee 可以用于revenue the city 可以再修路，修橋等等 lecture 中，professor 否定了這個觀點。

（1）他認(rèn)為這樣做有些司機(jī)不愿意花錢走這個區(qū)域就得繞路，更浪費時間。舉了個例子：送快遞的，他們要省錢，所以送快遞的時候會變長。

（2）在收費區(qū)里面環(huán)境可能會好點，但是周圍的車相對就會增多，noise and air pollution 就會多。所以不是整個city都能環(huán)境變好

（3）有的人不能afford 這個費用了，就會去坐subway，政府就得出更多的錢維護(hù)subway，這樣一來收的那點錢可能還不夠維護(hù)的，所以也不能起到幫助修橋，修路什么的作用了。

The policy of congestion pricing is enforced in some urban areas in order to alleviate traffic congestion. The reading passage explains the benefits of congestion pricing, while the lecture warns that this policy has a number of negative effects.

The reading suggests that congestion pricing reduces traffic so drivers can reach their destination in less time. However, the lecturer contends that not all people will find it time-saving. Some drivers will go round the pricing zone in order to avoid congestion surcharges. For example, delivery drivers will take a longer route to avoid this additional cost, so the delivery time is increased.

The second benefit mentioned in the reading is that congestion pricing improves urban environment. However, the lecturer points out that this may be true for areas within the charging zone because there is less traffic there. But in the surrounding areas, pollution and noise may become worse as a result of increased level of traffic that moves to those areas.

Finally, according to the reading, congestion charges are a source of cityrevenue which can be used by the governmentto improve public facilities such as roads and bridges. Yet the lecturer argues that this policy will lead some people toswitch from driving to using public transportation such as the subway. This will entail an additional cost for subwaymaintenance, which may even exceed the revenue from congestion pricing. Therefore the policy will not help improveroads and bridges.

關(guān)鍵詞：預(yù)測 匯總 托福綜合寫作 范文 8月16日 機(jī)經(jīng)

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9. （命中指數(shù)：4星）洞穴壁畫。

（1）洞穴畫里有大量動物主題，而且有一些是當(dāng)時的首要狩獵對象，還有一些箭的圖案，受傷的動物，所以表現(xiàn)的都是狩獵場景。

（2）有出現(xiàn)人身獸頭的圖像，說是因為他們常常用動物頭偽裝成動物打獵，所以畫這些畫。

（3）史前人類作畫很多時候是因為認(rèn)為畫有魔力，可以通過作畫影響一定的現(xiàn)實，所以畫出來的狩獵場景就是為了保證打獵順利而作

聽力：反駁閱讀，給出理由是：

（1）洞穴里有大量的動物主題，但也有犀牛和貓，這兩樣不怎么被狩獵，而且很多畫的動物也沒有wounded�。贿�有根本就沒那個時候最常被狩獵的動物—馴鹿，所以說動物主題和打獵不一定有關(guān)系。

（2）壁畫上的人身獸頭是因為當(dāng)時的人們相信他們的祖先的靈魂會附在動物身上。為了和祖先交流，他們會舉辦一些儀式活動，這些獸頭很可能是為了這種儀式才畫上去的。而且說是獵人，那么打獵的活動獵人形象應(yīng)該是站著的，可是畫上的人是水平姿勢的，所以這個解釋站不住腳

（3）這個magical power在不同的文化中有不同的含義啊，in some case，這是一種儀式，actually the magical power their ancestors believe in is that they can communicate with the animals living around.

The reading passage explains the purpose of prehistoric paintings found in Lascaux Cave in France. According to the reading, these paintings were created by the painters with the hope of finding good luck to ensure successful hunting. However, the lecturer disagrees with this explanation.

First, the reading states that there are large animals in some paintings depicted as being wounded by spears and arrows, suggesting that these animals were hunted by the painters.（關(guān)聯(lián)視頻里對動物圖案有一定介紹） However, the lecturer points out that there are other paintings that depict small animals such as cats and reindeers, which prehistoric people did not hunt. Moreover, some animals in the paintings do not appear to have been wounded. So these paintings may not be related with hunting.

Second, human figures with animal heads may not be proof that the paintings were related with hunting. According to the lecturer, some human figures do not appear in the painting to be standing; some are even sleeping. They were clearly not hunting in such a horizontal position, so it is probably not true that the humans in the paintings are wearing animal heads as a camouflage while hunting.

The third theory in the reading proposes that the painters created these paintings because they believed that these paintings might have magical powers. But the lecturer argues that this magical power might have nothing to do with hunting. The painters might have believed that they could communicate with their ancestors’ spirits through these painted animals.

10.(命中指數(shù)：4星)

閱讀：北美有段時間大型動物滅絕，是因為人類活動的關(guān)系。原因有三：

(1) 人類出現(xiàn)和大動物同時發(fā)生；

(2) 大動物向來沒天敵，所以對人類沒有戒心，人就得手了；

(3) 人類喜歡殺大動物，所以小動物就沒死吧。

聽力：

(1) 同時出現(xiàn)不代表有因果關(guān)系，有很多地方?jīng)]有人但是動物還不是滅絕了，所以說是一個全球性的影響，比如氣候；

(2) 沒證據(jù)表明人能搞死大動物，況且古代人不在一個地方常駐，不可能把一個動物搞絕跡。那個時候的人類沒有保存肉的方法，所以不太可能去hunt大動物；

(3) 同時期小動物也死了不少。

Being skeptical about the theory of the relation between human hunting and the extinction of large mammals in North America, the listening passage puts forth a perspective totally contrary to the reasons stated in the reading content.

To begin with, it is about the timing human beings came to the place where large mammals were wiped out. The listening passage says that there is no exactly the cause and effect relation for the extinction of those large mammals with the arrival of human beings. That is to say, the extinction and the time of human arrival are just a coincidence and such large extinction must be caused by something else, such as weather abnormality. However, the reading indicates, it is human beings appearing to certain areas that large animals were extinct and they were happened at the same period of time.

Secondly, the contradictory point regards-the behavior of large animals. To be more concise, large mammals did not have predators at that time, so human hunting was not a difficult job. From the listening however, it says that human beings did not know food preservation skills to keep meat for a long time and they hunted only what they needed. So, the declining number of large animals should not be so drastic due to this reason. Additionally, human beings were moving a lot and it is not convincing at all whatsoever that all the large mammals were extinct.

Lastly, the lecturer suggests that not just large mammals were extinct at that time, but were many smaller ones, such as certain kinds of birds. The reading content however shows that human beings only hunted for large mammals. What shall be the explanation why smaller animals were also extinct at that time? Thus, the listening supports other theories for such extinction, such as extreme weather condition and the forth. To conclude, the listening content is totally opposing to what the reading says in the article.

關(guān)鍵詞：預(yù)測 匯總 托福綜合寫作 范文 8月16日 機(jī)經(jīng)

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11.（命中指數(shù)：4星）

閱讀：小額貸款（microcredit）給 poor 沒用

1.因為the poor 沒有business 的經(jīng)驗，即使借錢給他們，也不會成功；

2.增加銀行 administrative cost；

3.這樣的話政府 投資給poor 的會減少。

聽力：反駁。

1.可以 educate them, 并舉了例子 India, teach them how to finance, how to budget

2.可以給 a small of group, instead of each person，這樣的話cost 也不會增加

3.窮人從international 機(jī)構(gòu)中獲得貸款之后，government save money 可以用于 bridges and road。

In the lecture, the speaker makes several points about the advantages of microcredit, a way used to help the poor for a successful future; this method however is supported by the reading passage.

The first point is about if microcredit really helps the poor in business. From the reading, it says that borrowers can only benefit from such loans when they have the knowledge of finance and business setting up experience. However, this is different from the listening in that many financial agencies provide basic financial education to customers when they ask for taking out such loans, such as how to budge wisely, how to keep costs down and the forth.

Moreover, from the reading passage, microloans are not effective because they are costly to process, adding up burden to the bank. However, the professor asserts that microcredit benefits the poor. For instance, banks do not need to respond to the entire individual request. In other words, four or five customers can take out a loan together and share the administrative costs.

Finally, the professor points out that microcredit could ensure the government to be investing the money saved into other fields. For example, governments can use this money to build infrastructure such as roads, bridges, or power lines. Those things are all helping the citizens. However, the reading says that government can pass the responsibility of helping the poor onto the side of bank.

In conclusion, micro financing is not a great idea to help the poor to get rid of their poverty and difficulty in life. Thus, the reading passage and the listening content are contradictory on stands held toward this issue.

12.（命中指數(shù)：4星）說有個manhaten還是甚么的魚快滅絕了，政府讓減少捕撈，但文章不同意。

閱讀：

(1)不是捕撈引起的，是另一種BASS還是甚么的動物吃光了這種manhaten魚，應(yīng)該轉(zhuǎn)而去減少這種BASS魚。

(2)說這種魚是當(dāng)?shù)剞r(nóng)業(yè)的重要原料，不讓捕撈影響農(nóng)業(yè)。

(3)會減少當(dāng)?shù)厝说墓ぷ鳈C(jī)會。

聽力反駁：

(1)這種BASS對于控制當(dāng)?shù)睾芏嗌�物的�?shù)量、保證生態(tài)平衡有巨大作用，滅了這種魚生態(tài)系統(tǒng)會被破壞。

(2)說這種魚并不是唯一原料，另一種東西已經(jīng)作為原料用得很好了。

(3)減少只是暫時的，如果繼續(xù)捕撈讓這種魚滅絕了，當(dāng)?shù)氐牟稉茦I(yè)就徹底玩完了，更沒工作。

The population of the menhaden in the Chesapeake Bay has been declining due to overfishing, so the government has called for a ban on menhaden fishing in the area. The author of the passage is concerned that such a ban may not be the right solution, while the lecturer gives the opposite opinion, arguing that the ban is necessary and justified.

First, the reading points to the fact that the real cause of the decline in the menhaden population is not fishing, but the striped bass, a major predator of the menhaden, so rather than limiting menhaden fishing, we should reduce the population of the striped bass. However, the lecture argues that the striped bass serve as an important link in the eco-system, keeping the population of many fish species under control. We should avoid disturbing the natural balance of the ecosystem, so the best solution is still a ban on menhaden fishing.

Second, the reading suggests that the menhaden are an important source of protein for livestock and poultry. Placing a ban on menhaden fishing would negatively affect nearby farms. The lecturer, however, states that the menhaden can be replaced by soybean, which is also a very effective source of protein for livestock and poultry. Therefore, banning fishing in the Chesapeake Bay would not create any shortage of proteins necessary for farms in the nearby areas.

Finally, the author of the passage is worried that limiting menhaden fishing would lead to the loss of job opportunities for fishermen, dealers and in the processing industries, which would hamper the local economy. From the lecture, however, we learn that the ban on menhaden fishing is only a temporary policy. Once the population of the menhaden returns to normal, the ban will be lifted and fishing and other related industries will grow healthily again. On the other hand, if overfishing is not stopped, it would result in a total collapse of the local economy sooner or later.

關(guān)鍵詞：預(yù)測 匯總 托福綜合寫作 范文 8月16日 機(jī)經(jīng)

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