2016年3月19日托福寫作預(yù)測(cè)

2016年3月19日托福考試寫作預(yù)測(cè)：

　　1、★★★★

　　討論是否limit the fish harvest of the fishing companies.限制漁業(yè)公司捕魚。 Reading：There are three reasons that government should limit the fish harvest.1、Government should reduce the number of stripe bass, for they prey on menhaden.2、Menhaden is the main source of protein. If the number of menhaden decreases, it has negative influences on livestock and poultry.3、It also reduces the job opportunities, which results in economic problem. Listening：These reasons are unconvincing.1、Reducing the number of Bass breaks the balance of ecosystem.2、Soybeans could provide protein, and they are more economical.3、It is true that people may lose jobs and economy will suffer; however, it will recover soon. If measures are not taken, the whole region will be doom to collapse.

　　2、★★★★★

　　cloud seeding 來減少冰雹 是有關(guān)冰雹的防止的問題

　　閱讀里面講的是一種叫cloud seeding的方法就是把碘化銀打到云里面去文章認(rèn)為這種方法可以有效的防止了冰雹對(duì)美國農(nóng)業(yè)的危害

　　第一點(diǎn)原因是在實(shí)驗(yàn)室的環(huán)境下，冰冰雹是在接近零度的時(shí)候形成的，而在加入了碘化銀后冰雹沒有形成教授的反駁是這是在實(shí)驗(yàn)室的環(huán)境中，而在現(xiàn)實(shí)生活中情況是不同的而且把cloud seeding可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致其他種類的降水(例如雨雪)也被限制 從而導(dǎo)致干旱

　　第二點(diǎn)是在亞洲的一部分城市的應(yīng)用表明cloud seeding確實(shí)在這些城市起到了防止冰雹的作用教授的反駁是這些城市都有空氣污染，空氣中的污染顆粒(PM2.5??)在防止冰雹的過程中也起到了很重要的作用(這一點(diǎn)的原因大家可以百度一下雨的成因在這里就不科普了) 而美國的農(nóng)業(yè)地區(qū)空氣污染很少 所以沒有這些污染顆粒 所以這個(gè)方法在這些地方不一定有用。

　　第三點(diǎn)是在美國中部曾經(jīng)用過could seeding這個(gè)方法而且數(shù)據(jù)表明確實(shí)有冰雹下降的現(xiàn)象教授的反駁是這種冰雹減少的現(xiàn)象在那個(gè)時(shí)候是一個(gè)大范圍的改變不僅限于美國中部(cloud seeding被用的地方) 所以這種改變更大程度上應(yīng)該是氣候改變的原因。

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　　3、★★★★

　　羅馬帝國成功和滅亡的原因 Reading：三個(gè)羅馬帝國成功的原因 1、有能力組建軍隊(duì)，被征服國家里收取俘虜;2、羅馬帝國的軍權(quán)獨(dú)一無二至高無上;3、羅馬帝國經(jīng)濟(jì)好，收稅支持軍隊(duì)花銷。 Listening：反駁閱讀的三個(gè)原因，說這是羅馬滅亡的原因 1、軍隊(duì)不全是羅馬人，收復(fù)的俘虜不忠實(shí)，羅馬有可能去打俘虜國家。俘虜也會(huì)反抗羅馬帝國。而且有證據(jù)表明在羅馬快滅亡打時(shí)候俘虜軍隊(duì)反叛了;2、對(duì)羅馬帝國剛開始的時(shí)候是有道理的，因?yàn)槠鸪醯膰�王非常英明，但是后來國王不做political decision會(huì)有人挑戰(zhàn)王權(quán)。而且后來的國王有私欲，會(huì)建立宮殿等無心管理。最終導(dǎo)致滅亡;3、農(nóng)業(yè)等增長已經(jīng)停止，然而軍事消耗還在增加，對(duì)人民對(duì)壓力越拉越大，人民反抗情緒高漲，不但不忠誠國家還會(huì)記恨國家，最終導(dǎo)致滅亡。

　　4、★★★★

　　閱讀講農(nóng)業(yè)補(bǔ)貼有好處。

　　1. low price will benefit consumers; 2. prevent world hunger; 3.job security.

　　聽力反駁。

　　1. subsidy來自taxes，taxes來自consumers;2. in long term, low-price food in rich country會(huì)hurt the agriculture of poor countries; 3. subsidy is just for certain types of crops like corns，得不到補(bǔ)貼的小農(nóng)場(chǎng)會(huì)go out of business。

　　5、★★★★

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)型捕撈的三個(gè)好處 Reading：There are three reasons that it is beneficial.1、To balance the ecosystem.2、To balance the number of fish.3、Lion fish contains high protein vitamins. Listening：These reasons are unconvincing.1、People will easily catch other fish, most of which are also precious species. It also do harm to the ecosystem.2、Once the demand of the lion fish increases, people would establish fish farm. If the lion fish escape from the farm, ecosystem will be damaged.3、The lion fish contains poisonous matter, which is harmful to people’s health.

　　6、★★★★★

　　教授認(rèn)為Advantages of EAS (Essential Air Service program) are not convicting at all. The subsidy should be eliminated or, at least, be reformed.

　　1、People living 110km far from the major airport are not in disadvantage. 110km doesn't sound too bad because airports are still accessible by bus or car within 2 hres.Urban residents also spend that much time traveling to the airport.

　　2、EAS may not be a good way to spend money. The government should spend the money on transportation,education, public service ets, and help people move into the city, settle down and find jobs.

　　3、manufactures have been producing fewer small planes,or even stopped doing that. so getting replacement parts can be very hard. Also lack of components keeps the cost going on. therefore, critics are right to say EAS is expensive.

　　listening

　　1、家在飛機(jī)場(chǎng)100kilometers之外的居民，他們到飛機(jī)場(chǎng)會(huì)有額外的subsidy.而且他們可以坐小車去機(jī)場(chǎng)，less 2 hours就能到機(jī)場(chǎng)了。

　　2、rural都搬到大城市了，因?yàn)槟抢镉懈�好的工作機(jī)會(huì)和公共服務(wù)等。政府應(yīng)該把前用來幫助rural搬到城市，并且加強(qiáng)城市的建設(shè)，例如教育，公共交通啊之類的。

　　3、政府可以把錢用來do repair或者maintain機(jī)場(chǎng)建設(shè)之類的 

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